Talk:Mann Co. Supply Crate/Retired series

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances

It appears that the drop chances for the series #82 crate are incorrect. I have unboxed 40 crates and got the following items:

• 9 x Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier -> 22.5%
• 8 x Phlogistinator Strangifier -> 20%
• 11 x Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier -> 27.5%
• 4 x Strange Cosmetic Part: Kills -> 10%
• 5 x Strange Part: Full Health Kills -> 12.5%
• 2 x Strange Part: Headshot Kills -> 5%
• 0 x Private Eye Strangifier -> 0%
• 1 x Big Chief Strangifier -> 2.5%
• No Unusuals or other items

These drop chances are very similar to crates such as series #42, #49 and #77. Tumbolisu (talk) 17:20, 12 October 2020 (UTC)

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances #2

Chances are closer to 20%, 20%, 20%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 5%, 4%, 0.67% (with the remaining 0.33% spread amongst the non-unusuals, roughly +0.04% each). It's definitely not what is listed currently. Raccoons (talk) 14:57, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

If there's any evidence for these chances, feel free to provide it and change the numbers.
GrampaSwood (talk) 16:12, 2 June 2022 (UTC)

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances #3

I opened 100 #82 crates

23% Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier

25% Phlogistinator Strangifier

24% Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier

5% Strange Cosmetic Part: Kills

8% Strange Part: Full Health Kills

8% Strange Part: Headshot Kills

3% Private Eye Strangifier

4% Big Chief Strangifier

no unusuals

Adding together with the previous user's results, chances are closer to

22.85% Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier

23.5% Phlogistinator Strangifier

25% Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier

6.4% Strange Cosmetic Part: Kills

9.2% Strange Part: Full Health Kills

7% Strange Part: Headshot Kills

2% Private Eye Strangifier

3.5% Big Chief Strangifier

Assuming each type of item drops the same

~24% weapon strangifiers

~7.5% strange parts

~2.75% hat strangifiers

Certee (talk) 08:17, 7 February 2023 (UTC)

Page is reaching length limits

• Post‐expand include size: 4126812/4194304 bytes

We're close to reaching the length limits for this page. With more retired crates being added it will cause rendering issues. Perhaps we can separate it into two pages: Retired Cases and Retired Crates? Oap (talk) 01:28, 6 September 2023 (UTC)

 Support. Sounds good. — Tark 01:39, 6 September 2023 (UTC)

Update: I was able to get the page size down by removing the data-value attribute I added to the rate rows: "Post‐expand include size: 3986860/4194304 bytes". Will still eventually reach the limits after a few more cases get added to this page, as one case table, description, etc. adds quite a bit to the page size. Will split this page into two pages. — The preceding unsigned comment was added by Oap (talk) • (contribs) 04:23 CET, 6 September 2023

Please remember to sign your comments using ~~~~.
| s | GrampaSwood (talk) 22:25, 26 September 2023 (UTC)

We could instead have individual articles for each crate, and turn this page into a simple "List of" page. Would the crate articles be extremely short? Yes, they would, but this would open up a lot of space in this one. - BrazilianNut (talk) 15:56, 15 October 2023 (UTC)

 Support. There are enough things to write about for every crate such as possible unusual effect and the list of items and bonuses. Splitting the pages would only delay reaching the limit, this would solve the problem forever. Also, even if the limit isn't reached the retired crates page is still too large in my opinion, and the layout makes most of it feel empty. The pages for individual cases already exist in the form of redirects. Lord of Dominating (talk) 18:35, 15 October 2023 (UTC)

We already ran into the issue, series 1 & 2 did not load anymore. Split the page into Retired case series for all the cases which should be able to hold a bit over double the amount of cases that currently exist. This page will be fine since they probably won't add another crate, let alone 50. I've already asked in IRC but either Module:Availability needs updated to have a case# param or we'll just have to keep adding cases to the array in Module:Availability/crate that I added for backwards compatibility. I will be making a talk page section over there as well. Jh34ghu43gu (talk) 10:22, 28 November 2023 (UTC)

Mann Co. Supply Munition Series #82 Drop Chances #4

I agree with the previous users' assertions that Crate 82. I unboxed 165 and measured these results:

• 43 Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier
• 40 Phlogistinator Strangifier
• 35 Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier
• 11 Strange Cosmetic Part Kills
• 13 Strange Cosmetic Part Kills
• 8 Strange Part Headshot Kills
• 8 Private Eye Strangifier
• 6 Big Chief Strangifier
• 1 Unusual

I also counted the following using Backpack.tf, though I had to use the applied Strange items instead of their original Strangifiers due to a bug in Backpack.tf's charts grouping all Strangifiers together:

• 55,607 Strange Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol
• 65,446 Strange Phlogistinator
• 48,550 Strange Cleaner Carbine
• 3,622 Strange Cosmetic Part Kills
• 5,814 Strange Part Full Health Kills
• 6,293 Strange Part Headshot Kills
• 5,894 Strange Private Eye
• 5,732 Strange Big Chief

I think that having it match Crate 42/47/77's probabilities is likely more accurate. My statistics is rough, but when I run a Chi Squared test against the old expected probabilities, it says to reject them all. However, running it on the new probabilities puts it at 7/9 accept. Here's my before and after, using p = 0.05.

Item	Expected Probabiility	Expected Frequency	Observed Frequency	Chi Squared
Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier	12.38%	23.0268	43	17.32454002	Reject
Phlogistinator Strangifier	12.38%	23.0268	40	12.51105313	Reject
Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier	12.38%	23.0268	35	6.225681304	Reject
Strange Cosmetic Part Kills	12.38%	23.0268	11	6.281546643	Reject
Strange Part Full Health Kills	12.38%	23.0268	13	4.366074237	Reject
Strange Part Headshot Kills	12.38%	23.0268	8	9.806170125	Reject
Private Eye Strangifier	12.38%	23.0268	8	9.806170125	Reject
Big Chief Strangifier	12.38%	23.0268	6	12.5901957	Reject
Series 3 Unusual	1.00%	1.86	1	0.3976344086	Do not reject

Item	Expected Probabiility	Expected Frequency	Observed Frequency	Chi Squared
Pretty Boy's Pocket Pistol Strangifier	21.00%	39.06	43	0.3974295955	Do not reject
Phlogistinator Strangifier	21.00%	39.06	40	0.02262160778	Do not reject
Cleaner's Carbine Strangifier	21.00%	39.06	35	0.4220071685	Do not reject
Strange Cosmetic Part Kills	9.90%	18.414	11	2.985087216	Reject
Strange Part Full Health Kills	9.90%	18.414	13	1.5917995	Do not reject
Strange Part Headshot Kills	9.90%	18.414	8	5.889616379	Reject
Private Eye Strangifier	3.50%	6.51	8	0.3410291859	Do not reject
Big Chief Strangifier	3.50%	6.51	6	0.03995391705	Do not reject
Series 3 Unusual	1.00%	1.86	1	0.3976344086	Do not reject

TheLetterZed (talk) 22:19, 26 September 2023 (UTC)